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The 90% Fallacy

Some recent studies estimate that autonomous vehicles (AVs) will reduce parking and/or driving demand by 90 percent by 2050. These studies are based on some similar assumptions, including that the biggest impacts will take place in dense urban areas, and that most consumers will be willing to share rides. Taking the volume of conventional vehicles currently on the road, consumer acceptance of shared rides, and population growth into account, Walker estimates that parking demand will be reduced by a national maximum of approximately 40 percent by 2050.