TIMING OF AVs AND TRANSPORTATION DISRUPTION
AVs could lead to a reduction in household vehicle ownership, since a fully-AV could manage an entire family’s transportation needs. If TNCs equip fleets with AVs, this could lead to subscription-based service, which could also reduce personal vehicle ownership. As a whole, experts suggest that about 20 percent of new vehicle sales will be fully-AVs by 2030, but when the volume of conventional vehicles currently on the road is considered, this will be a small fraction of total vehicles on the road. Walker estimates that total parking demand could decline by as much as 40 percent by 2050, nationally.
